نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

مربی گروه کشاورزی دانشگاه پیام نور تهران

چکیده

هدف از مطالعه حاضر، برآورد و مقایسه‌ی حساسیت بازده اقتصادی به تغییرات در عملکرد تولیدی، تولیدمثلی و نرخ حذف اجباری در گله‌های گاو شیری بود. به این منظور از اطلاعات ثبت شده در عملکرد سالیانه گله‌های تحت پوشش تعاونی وحدت اصفهان و یک مدل زیست - اقتصادی توسعه یافته در نرم افزار DairyVIP، استفاده گردید. میانگین تولید شیر سالیانه، نرخ آبستنی و نرخ حذف اجباری مولدها، به ترتیب 11588 کیلوگرم، 6/18 و 1/18 درصد بود که در این شرایط سود خالص سالیانه به ازای یک رأس مولد، 23310 هزار ریال به دست آمد. هر یک کیلوگرم تغییر در میانگین شیر روزانه به طور میانگین باعث 1353 هزار ریال تغییر در سود سالیانه شد. این در حالی بود که یک درصد تغییر در نرخ آبستنی و حذف اجباری، سود سالیانه را به ترتیب 564 و 321 هزار ریال تغییر دادند. نقطه سر به سر تولید شیر روزانه و نرخ آبستنی برای ثابت ماندن سود سالیانه، بسیار متغیر بود به طوری که افزایش پنج کیلوگرم تولید شیر روزانه توانست تا 1/8 درصد کاهش نرخ آبستنی را تحمل کند؛ در صورتی که برای جبران زیان اقتصادی حاصل از کاهش پنج کیلوگرم تولید شیر روزانه بایستی نرخ آبستنی را تا 6/26 درصد نسبت به شرایط پایه افزایش داد. نتایج این تحقیق می تواند به تولیدکنندگان در شناخت ارزش اقتصادی صفات مهم در سودآوری سالیانه گله و اخذ تصمیمات صحیح مدیریتی برای بهبود سود اقتصادی کمک نماید

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimate of sensitivity of economic efficiency for variety in production, reproduction performances and culling rate in dairy herds in Isfahan

نویسنده [English]

  • efat nasresfahani

چکیده [English]

The objective of this study was to estimate and compare the sensitivity of economic efficiency to change in productive and reproductive performance as well as involuntary culling rate of dairy herds. For this purpose, A bio- economic model developed in DairyVIP software was used to analysis the registered information’s in the annual performance of dairy farms covered by Isfahan Vahdat cooperation. The net annual profit obtained 23310 × 1000 IRR when the average annual of milk yield, pregnancy rate and annual involuntary culling rate were 11588 kg, %18.6 and %18.1, respectively. The annual profit varied by 1353 × 1000 IRR per 1 kg change in the daily milk yield. While for every 1 percent change in the conception and involuntary culling rate, the annual profit varied by 564 and 321 × 1000 IRR, respectively. The breakeven of daily milk yield and pregnancy rate was too changeable to stay the annual interest, So that an increase in daily milk yield by 5 kg could tolerate a decrease in pregnancy rates up to % 8.1. Whereas pregnancy rate should be increased as much as 26.6% of basic conditions to compensate the economic losses due to a decline in daily milk yield by 5kg. Our finding can help the producers to identify the economic value of important traits in cattle annual profitability and take the optimal management decisions to improve economic benefit.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Annual profit
  • Breakeven
  • Daily milk yield
  • Conception rate
  • Involuntary culling rate

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