Journal of Animal Production, Print ISSN: 2008-6776., Online ISSN: 2382-994X

Analysis of spatial effects on chicken meat supply and demand in Iran: A spatial panel approach

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Vahid Kalantar 1
Hamed Najafi Alamdarloo 2
Seyed Habibollah Mosavi 3

1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran. E-mail: vahid.kalantar@modares.ac.ir

2 Corresponding Author, Department of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran. Email: hamed_najafi@modares.ac.ir

3 Department of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran. Email: shamosavi@modares.ac.ir

https://doi.org/10.22059/jap.2026.406981.623882
Abstract
Objective: As a primary source of dietary protein, chicken meat represents a major component of household consumption in Iran. This study investigates the economic and spatial drivers of provincial chicken supply and demand, aiming to provide a robust framework for regionally targeted policy formulation. The analysis covers the period between 2002 and 2024
Method: Utilizing provincial panel data, this study models supply and demand functions via traditional panel techniques and spatial econometric frameworks. Based on rigorous specification and diagnostic testing, a fixed-effects estimation approach was adopted. The model incorporates key explanatory variables, including producer prices for live chickens (supply determinants), retail chicken prices (demand determinants), input costs, exchange rates, household income, and red meat prices as a substitute. Furthermore, the analysis computes historical price elasticities to track longitudinal changes in consumer price sensitivity.
Results: Following the preliminary diagnostic tests, the fixed-effects panel model was determined to be the most appropriate framework for analyzing chicken meat supply and demand dynamics. The results indicated that the price of live poultry exerted a significant positive impact on supply. Conversely, while the retail price of chicken meat negatively affected demand, the price of red meat showed a positive correlation with chicken demand, reflecting a substitution effect. Furthermore, spatial analysis confirmed that provincial supply and demand were significantly influenced by spatial dependencies. The identification of positive spatial autocorrelation in supply and negative spatial autocorrelation in demand suggests divergent geographic distribution patterns for these two variables.
Conclusions: This study applied spatial econometric approaches to examine how regional interactions shape Iran’s chicken meat market. The findings showed that both supply and demand were determined not only by within-province economic conditions but also by developments in neighboring provinces, confirming the presence of significant spatial interdependence. The estimated supply function indicated that live chicken prices positively affected supply, whereas higher input costs and exchange rate fluctuations adversely influenced production. On the demand side, household income and the price of red meat, as a substitute good, exerted positive effects on chicken consumption, while the price of chicken meat itself negatively affected demand. Compared with earlier studies that estimated the price elasticity of chicken meat at approximately −0.93-0.93−0.93, the present study found a substantially lower elasticity of about −0.25-0.25−0.25. This finding suggests that chicken meat has increasingly become a necessity in the food basket of Iranian households, with consumers exhibiting lower sensitivity to price changes. As a result, price adjustments in this market are likely to face limited consumer responsiveness. The observed substitution effect between chicken and red meat further indicates that rising red meat prices encourage households to shift their consumption toward chicken. Spatial analysis also revealed convergence in supply, implying that production levels in one province tended to influence those of neighboring provinces. More broadly, the spatial econometric models confirmed that variables such as input prices, exchange rates, and household income played significant roles in shaping provincial supply and demand patterns. Overall, the results underscore the importance of designing region-specific policies that account for spatial linkages rather than relying solely on uniform national interventions. Despite limitations related to data availability and model specification, this study highlights the critical role of spatial factors in formulating more effective, balanced, and context-sensitive policies for Iran’s chicken meat market.

Keywords

Economic modeling
Input price
Panel data
Spatial econometrics
Spatial effects
حسین‌زاده، جواد و پاکروح، پریسا (۱۳۹۵). تحلیل شکست ساختاری در ترجیحات مصرف‌کنندگان گوشت قرمز و گوشت مرغ در ایران. پژوهش‌های علوم دامی (دانش کشاورزی)، ۲۶(۱)، ۱۷5-۱۸۶.
دلاور، امین؛ یاوری، غلام‌رضا؛ یزدانی، سعید؛ امجدی، افشین و محمودی، ابوالفضل (۱۴۰۰). آزمون جدایی‌پذیری ضعیف و برآورد سیستم تقاضای گوشت در ایران (کاربرد سیستم تقاضای روتردام). تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران، ۵۲(۲)، ۲۱5-۲۲۸.
رفیعی، حامد؛ امجدی، افشین و غزنوی، شیوا (۱۳۹۸). اثرات سیاست حمایت از تولیدکننده بر ضریب خودکفایی گوشت مرغ در ایران. اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه، ۲۶(۱۰۴)، 1-۲۱.
عرفانی‌فر، صمد؛ بخشوده، محمد و زیبایی، منصور (۱۳۹۹). ارزش‌گذاری کیفیت گوشت مرغ از دیدگاه مصرف‌کنندگان در شهر شیراز. اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه، ۲۸(۱۰۹)، ۱۴3-۱۶۹.
عطایی‌سلوط، کمال و محمدی، حمید (۱۳۹۷). تعیین کشش تقاضای محصولات غذایی منتخب در استان مازندران با استفاده از الگوی سیستم معادلات تقاضای تقریباً ایده‌آل (AIDS): مطالعه موردی: گوشت سفید، آبزیان و قرمز. تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی، ۱۰(۳)، ۱۷3-۱۸۵.
فخفوری، حوریه؛ موسوی، سید حبیب‌اله؛ هنرور، محمدرضا و اژدری، سمیه (۱۴۰۱). آسیب‌پذیری خانوارهای شهری از افزایش قیمت مواد غذایی: مطالعه موردی شهرستان آزادشهر. اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه، ۳۰(۱۱۷)، ۱۳1-۱۵۳.
گودرزی، مصطفی؛ رستمیان، رضا و واحدی، وحید (۱۳۹۸). تحلیل تفاوت تقاضای مصرف گوشت قرمز در برابر گوشت مرغ در ایران. مقاله پذیرفته‌شده در چهارمین کنگره بین‌المللی توسعه کشاورزی، منابع طبیعی، محیط زیست و گردشگری ایران.
لیانی، قاسم؛ بخشوده، محمد و احمدی‌کیا، زینب (۱۳۹۹). عوامل مؤثر بر اشتغال زارعین به فعالیت‌های خارج از مزرعه و تأثیر آن بر برابری درآمد در شهرستان مرودشت. مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، ۳۴(۳)، ۲۵9-۲۷۳.
میرزایی، عباس؛ آزرم، حسن؛ ولی‌زاده، ناصر؛ سبحانی، سید محمدجواد و ضیایی، علی (۱۴۰۳). اثرات انفجار قیمت و سیاست های جبرانی بر امنیت غذایی: مطالعه موردی: مصرف کنندگان گوشت مرغ در ایران. تحقیقات کشاورزی ایران، ۴۲(۲)، ۴9-۵۸. https://doi.org/10.22099/iar.2024.48881.1565
 

References

Akbar, M. (2021). Analysis Factors Affecting the Demand and Supply of Free-range Chicken Meat in Pakpak Bharat Regency. Budapest International Research and Critics Institute(BIRCI-Journal): Humanities and Social Sciences.
Akbar, M., Hasnudi, H., & Supriana, T. (2021). Analysis Factors Affecting the Demand and Supply of Local Chicken Meat in Pakpak Bharat Regency. Budapest International Research and Critics Institute-Journal (BIRCI-Journal), 4(1), 986-998.
Amolegbe, K. B., Upton, J., Bageant, E., & Blom, S. (2021). Food price volatility and household food security: Evidence from Nigeria. Food Policy, 102, 102061. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102061
Ani, S. W., & Antriyandarti, E. (2019, November). Analysis of Household Demand for Chicken Meat in Yogyakarta. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (Vol. 347, No. 1, p. 012119). IOP Publishing.
Ataei-Selout, K., & Mohammadi, H. (2018). Estimation of demand elasticities for selected food products in Mazandaran Province using the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS): A case study of white meat, aquatic products, and red meat. Agricultural Economics Research, 10(3), 173-185. (In Persian)
Blake, D. P., Knox, J., Dehaeck, B., Huntington, B., Rathinam, T., Ravipati, V., ... & Tomley, F. M. (2020). Re-calculating the cost of coccidiosis in chickens. Veterinary research, 51, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13567-020-00837-2
Chatti, W., & Majeed, M. T. (2024). Meat production, technological advances, and environmental protection: evidence from a dynamic panel data model. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 26(12), 31225-31250. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-04449-6
Delavar, A., Yavari, G. R., Yazdani, S., Amjadi, A., & Mahmoudi, A. F. (2021). Weak separability test and estimation of meat demand system in Iran (Application of the Rotterdam demand system). Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 52(2), 215-228. (In Persian)
Dewantari, R. Y., Suparta, N., & Putri, B. R. T. (2023). Analysis of supply and demand of broiler chicken meat in Bali province. Agricultural Socio-Economics Journal, 23(1), 1-9.
Erdaw, M. M., & Beyene, W. T. (2022). Trends, prospects and the socio-economic contribution of poultry production in sub-Saharan Africa: a review. World's Poultry Science Journal, 78(3),835-852. https://doi.org/10.1080/00439339.2022.2092437
Erfanifar, S., Bakhshoodeh, M., & Zibaei, M. (2020). Valuing the Quality of Chicken Meat from Consumers' Viewpoint in Shiraz City of Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development, 28(109), 143-169. (In Persian)
Fakhfouri, H., Mousavi, S. H. A., Honarvar, M. R., & Ajdari, S. (2022). Urban household vulnerability to food price increases: A case study of Azadshahr County. Agricultural Economics and Development, 30(117), 131-153. (In Persian)
Goudarzi, M., Rostamian, R., & Vahedi, V. (2019). Analysis of differences in consumer demand for red meat versus chicken meat in Iran. In Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Agricultural Development, Natural Resources, Environment, and Tourism of Iran. (In Persian)
Hosseinzadeh, J., & Pakrouh, P. (2016). Structural break analysis in consumer preferences for red meat and chicken meat in Iran. Journal of Animal Science Research (Agricultural Sciences), 26(1), 175-186. (In Persian)
Hsiao, C. (2022). Analysis of panel data (No. 64). Cambridge university press.
Kleyn, F. J., & Ciacciariello, M. (2021). Future demands of the poultry industry: will we meet our commitments sustainably in developed and developing economies?. World's Poultry Science Journal, 77(2), 267-278. https://doi.org/10.1080/00439339.2021.1904314
Liyani, Q., Bakhshoodeh, M., & Ahmadi-Kia, Z. (2020). Determinants of farmers’ participation in off-farm activities and its effect on income equality in Marvdasht County. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 34(3), 259-273. (In Persian)
Makeienko, M. (2020). Symbolic analysis applied to the specification of spatial trends and spatial dependence. Entropy, 22(4), 466. https://doi.org/10.3390/e22040466
Mendami, M., Najafi, S. M. B., & Fethullahi, C. (2023). A Comparative Study of the Effect of Some Institutional Factors on Productivity in the Broiler Industry of Iran's provinces. Agricultural Economics, 16(4), 93-114. (In Persian)
Meng, X. N., & Xu, S. C. (2022). Can industrial collaborative agglomeration reduce carbon intensity? Empirical evidence based on Chinese provincial panel data. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(40), 61012-61026. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-20191-4
Mirzaei, A., Azarm, H., Valizadeh, N., Sobhani, S. M. J., & Ziaee, A. (2024). The effects of price explosion and compensatory policies on food security: The Case of chicken meat consumers in Iran. Iran Agricultural Research, 42(2), 49-58. (In Persian) https://doi.org/10.22099/iar.2024.48881.1565
Ministry of Agriculture Jihad. (2024). Statistical yearbooks and agricultural statistics for 2024 [Statistical database]. Ministry of Agriculture Jihad, Iran. Retrieved from https://dpe.maj.ir/آمارنامه-ها
Neima, H. A., Sirwan, K., & Hameed, K. (2021, November). Consumers choice and preference for chicken meat in Sulaymaniyah. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (Vol. 910, No. 1, p. 012028). IOP Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/910/1/012028
Rafiee, H., Amjadi, A., & Ghaznavi, S. (2019). Producer Support Policy Effects on Self-Sufficiency Coefficient of Chicken Meat in Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development , 26(104 ), 1-21. (In Persian)
Rigotti, L., LeRoux, M., Verteramo Chiu, L., & Schmit, T. M. (2025). Price Elasticities of Demand for Meat Products at Farmers Markets. Cornell SC Johnson College of Business Research Paper.
Ronaghi, M. (2025). Effects of COVID-19 on Iran’s livestock and meat market. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 24(5), 1017-1028.
Usva, K., Hietala, S., Nousiainen, J., Vorne, V., Vieraankivi, M. L., Jallinoja, M., & Leinonen, I. (2023). Environmental life cycle assessment of Finnish broiler chicken production–Focus on climate change and water scarcity impacts. Journal of Cleaner Production, 410, 137097. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137097
Uzundumlu, A. S., & Dilli, M. (2023). Estimating chicken meat productions of leader countries for 2019-2025 years. Ciência Rural, 53, e20210477. https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-8478cr20210477
Wang, Y., Wang, M., Wu, Y., & Sun, G. (2023). Exploring the effect of ecological land structure on PM2. 5: A panel data study based on 277 prefecture-level cities in China. Environment International, 174, 107889. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2023.107889
Wibowo, R. P., Pebriyani, D., Indrawati, T., & Khaliqi, M. (2025). How Beef, Chicken, And Egg Demand Elasticities Vary With Income In Indonesia. Journal Agrisep: Kajian Masalah Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian Dan Agribisnis, 24(01), 361-384
Journal of Animal Production, Print ISSN: 2008-6776., Online ISSN: 2382-994X
Volume 28, Issue 2
Summer 2026
Pages 273-287

Home

Guide for Authors

Submit Manuscript

Reviewers

Contact Us